Equity Curve Simulator (Monte Carlo)

A trading equity curve is the plot of your account balance after every closed trade — the single most honest picture of a strategy, because it shows not just the final return but the path taken to get there: the drawdowns, the losing streaks, the flat stretches. Two strategies with identical total returns can have radically different equity curves, and the smoother one is almost always the one you can actually trade without abandoning it mid-drawdown.

The problem with judging a single equity curve — even from a good backtest — is that it is one draw from a distribution. Shuffle the order of the same trades and the drawdowns land elsewhere; run the same edge again and the curve looks different. That is what this Monte Carlo trading simulator addresses: it replays your win rate, take profit and stop loss across hundreds of randomized sequences, so you see the envelope of realistic outcomes — best case, worst case and median — instead of one lucky or unlucky path.

Reading the result: the spread between the best and worst curves is your variance risk, and the worst curve's deepest dip is the drawdown you should be prepared to sit through even if the strategy performs exactly as specified. To turn that into survival numbers, the risk of ruin calculator computes the probability of hitting a fixed loss threshold, and the Kelly criterion calculator tells you how much of that variance is self-inflicted position sizing. To ground the inputs in reality rather than guesses, browse 75K+ backtested strategies and use a real strategy's win rate and risk/reward as your starting point.