Losing Streak Probability Calculator

The probability that your next N trades all lose is simple: with a loss probability q = 1 − win rate,

P(next N all lose) = q ^ N

But that is the wrong number for risk planning. What matters is the probability of hitting an N-loss streak at some point during a whole sequence of trades — and that number is dramatically higher. This calculator computes it exactly (a run-length recursion over every possible path, not an approximation). With a 60% win rate, the odds that the next 5 trades all lose are just 1.02% — yet over 100 trades, the odds of experiencing at least one 5-loss streak are 45.9%, and the expected worst streak is about 4.6 losses. Nearly half of all traders with that exact edge will sit through 5 straight losses in their first hundred trades while their strategy works precisely as designed.

This is why abandoning a strategy mid-streak is the most expensive mistake in trading — and why position sizing must assume the expected streak will happen. To turn a streak into account impact, the loss recovery calculator shows the gain needed to climb out of the resulting drawdown, the risk of ruin calculator computes the survival probability of your full strategy, and the Kelly criterion calculator converts your edge into a streak-proof position size.

Switch the toggle to Win Streaks and the same mathematics applies to consecutive winners: P(N wins in a row starting now) = win rate ^ N, and the within-session probability comes from the same exact recursion. The practical lesson is symmetric too — a hot streak over a handful of trades is usually variance, not skill, just as a cold streak is usually variance, not a broken edge. Judge a strategy on its full sample: simulate its long-run profitability or run hundreds of Monte Carlo equity curves instead of reading meaning into the last few results.