Trend Following based on Trend Confidence

Script from: TradingViewSwingTrend followingMomentum

The Trend Following strategy using Trend Confidence calculates the confidence level of a linear trend from past closing prices, gauging trend strength via Ordinary Linear Regression. Entry and exit thresholds are set based on the level of confidence, with distinct parameters for long and short positions reflecting market behavior. Designed primarily for BTC-USD on a 4-hour timeframe, it factors in commission and slippage, utilizing a stop loss to manage risk exposure.

Audit verdict

Not rankedUpdated Jul 28, 2026

No reliable edge found

Its average result can't be told apart from chance, so it stays out of our rankings. The script itself passed our repainting audit.

772backtests3 markets

11robust scoreranked median 52

0.53p-valueranked median 0.24

0/35pass quality gatebacktests >15 trades

Audit details

How we decide whether a strategy enters our rankings. Read the methodology →

✓

Repainting audit

8 of 8 checks passed.

✓

Script availability

Open-source, still published on TradingView.

Statistical edge

Average t-statistic 0.69 (p = 0.53), below the median of 1.98 (p = 0.24) for ranked strategies.

Quality gate

None of the 35 backtests with more than 15 trades passes our quality gate.

Robust score

11/100, below the median of 52 for ranked strategies.

How its evidence compares

The t-statistic measures how far the average result sits from zero relative to its noise. Below about 2, it is within what random entries produce.

0.69

avg. t-statistic

1.98

median, ranked strategies

Best 5 of 772 backtests

Shown for transparency.

Symbol	Timeframe	Net profit	Profit factor	Trades	Max drawdown
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. NASDAQ:AMD	1D	+1,002%	1.30	58	61%
ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:ALXO	4H	+332%	2.70	12	26%
Aptos CRYPTO:APTOUSD	4H	+215%	2.21	18	39%
Crypto.com Coin / United States Dollar COINBASE:CROUSD	4H	+209%	1.16	104	63%
Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) NYSE:RIG	1D	+196%	1.23	55	66%

⚠Selected after the fact: these are the best 5 of 772 runs, not what to expect from this strategy. Most have fewer than 60 trades, too few to separate skill from luck.

Is Trend Following based on Trend Confidence profitable?

Not reliably, based on our tests. Across 772 backtests, 0 of 35 with more than 15 trades pass our quality gate. The best result is +1,002% on Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (1D, 58 trades). On average, its results are statistically indistinguishable from chance (p = 0.53).

Strategies that passed our audit

Ranked strategies from the same family, ordered by robust score.

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85/100robust score

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83/100robust score

4/53backtests pass quality gate

View backtests →Passed our audit1 minute crypto strategy (MTF ZigZag)Trend following · Momentum

81/100robust score

5/83backtests pass quality gate

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