Trend Following with Bollinger Bands

Script from: TradingViewLongTermTrend followingVolatilityCandlestick

Trend Following with Bollinger Bands utilizes Bollinger Bands in place of Donchian Channels to follow market trends. For long positions, the price must close above the middle line, and the 40 EMA crosses above the 120 EMA. For short positions, the opposite is true. Stop-losses are set 4 ATRs away. Recent updates improved position size accuracy and adjusted the stop-loss multiplier for better control.

Audit verdict

Not rankedUpdated Jul 28, 2026

No reliable edge found

Its average result can't be told apart from chance, so it stays out of our rankings. The script itself passed our repainting audit.

1,134backtests3 markets

30robust scoreranked median 52

0.41p-valueranked median 0.24

9/72pass quality gatebacktests >15 trades

Audit details

How we decide whether a strategy enters our rankings. Read the methodology →

✓

Repainting audit

8 of 8 checks passed.

✓

Script availability

Open-source, still published on TradingView.

Statistical edge

Average t-statistic 1.11 (p = 0.41), below the median of 1.98 (p = 0.24) for ranked strategies.

✓

Quality gate

9 of 72 backtests with more than 15 trades pass our quality gate.

Robust score

30/100, below the median of 52 for ranked strategies.

How its evidence compares

The t-statistic measures how far the average result sits from zero relative to its noise. Below about 2, it is within what random entries produce.

1.11

avg. t-statistic

1.98

median, ranked strategies

Best 5 of 1,134 backtests

Shown for transparency.

Symbol	Timeframe	Net profit	Profit factor	Trades	Max drawdown
10 Year T-Note Futures CBOT:ZN1!	2H	+8,966%	1.08	233	4281%
Gold Futures COMEX:GC1!	1D	+4,366%	1.72	152	56%
E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT) CME_MINI:NQ1!	2H	+550%	1.30	231	39%
E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT) CME_MINI:NQ1!	1D	+407%	2.05	59	59%
USTCUSDT SPOT BYBIT:USTCUSDT	2H	+286%	3.61	225	8%

⚠Selected after the fact: these are the best 5 of 1,134 runs, not what to expect from this strategy.

Is Trend Following with Bollinger Bands profitable?

Not reliably, based on our tests. Across 1,134 backtests, 9 of 72 with more than 15 trades pass our quality gate. The best result is +8,966% on 10 Year T-Note Futures (2H, 233 trades). On average, its results are statistically indistinguishable from chance (p = 0.41).

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